The blinking light near PCIe is a problem. However, HDMI-to-VGA adapters will not work unless you’ve correctly programmed in the EDID of the adapter for the specs of your VGA monitor. Even if there is no hardware failure it is guaranteed that the only way such an adapter will work without EDID is through blind luck.
Is this on a developer board? Is the supplied power adapter used? Does the blinking occur when all peripherals are left disconnected?
FYI, a serial console is the way to see what’s going on, not VGA (on the other hand if that light is blinking and nothing is connected to consume power from any rails other than the board, then I doubt serial console would help). For serial console see: