Hey Tim,
I am new to this Jetson thing but I have just today installed JetPack-L4T-2.3.1-linux-x64 on a ubuntu-14.04.5-desktop-amd64 image that is now running in VMware Player 12.5.1 build-4542065. The “host host” is Windows 7 Enterprise SP1.
The install completed ok with no errors, including the push and install to a TK1 connected by USB.
The extra steps after putting the TK1 into recovery mode were …
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In VMware Player, select “Player” > “Removable Devices” > “NVidia APX” > “Connect” (the lsusb command in the guest os reported the USB as expected).
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I had to manually set the IP address of the TK1 (determined this from my router), installer also prompted for the TK1 username / password so I assumed the default (i.e. ubuntu/ubuntu).
I will be playing with this more during the week, looks ok so far though. Hope this helps.
Ian.